The broadening of the criminal inquiry in Germany into the Volkswagen diesel emissions scandal to include Hans Dieter Ptsch, chairman of its supervisory board, shows how badly VW lost its way.德国不断扩大了针对大众汽车(Volkswagen)柴油尾气废气丑闻的刑事调查，该公司监事会主席汉斯.迪亚特.波什(Hans Dieter Ptsch)沦为调查对象，这指出大众汽车多么地误入歧途。The scandal is still shaking the company: its use of software on up to 11m cars to help them pass emissions tests has carried a heavy price, making VW set aside EURO18.2bn. It has also disillusioned the industry, ending Europe’s hope of “clean diesel” becoming an enduring alternative to petrol.这桩丑闻仍在动摇该公司：大众在其1100万辆柴油发动机汽车上加装作弊软件协助这些汽车通过尾气废气检测，这一作法的代价是惨烈的，被迫大众为此拨备182亿欧元。大众还让汽车行业的幻想幻灭，落幕了欧洲让“洗手柴油”沦为一种持久代替汽油的自由选择的期望。

The lasting significance of the VW scandal will be to bring forward a shift in engine technology and alter the balance of power among the world’s biggest vehicle markets: the US, Europe and Asia. The lesson for carmakers is: go electric and go to China.大众尾气丑闻的长久影响将促成发动机技术再次发生改变，并转变全球仅次于汽车市场（美国、欧洲和亚洲）的实力均衡。汽车制造商获得的教训是：生产电动汽车，到中国去。

Fuel-efficient diesel, with exhaust filters to limit emissions of nitrogen oxide particles, was supposed both to curb greenhouse gases and limit pollution. In practice, Europe tried to ignore an inconvenient truth about the latter: the UK government was last week instructed by a court to cut diesel fumes in cities faster than it had planned.节约能源柴油备有容许一氧化氮微粒废气的排气过滤器，本不应增加温室气体和污染物的废气。实质上，欧洲企图忽略有关后者的一个让人不肯面临的事实：一家法庭上周呼吁英国政府以比原计划更慢的速度增加城市的柴油废气。No one could fail to notice such fumes in China. About one-third of the pollution that clogs the skies in cities such as Beijing and Chongqing comes from internal combustion engines as their citizens turn to driving. By the mid 2020s, Chinese consumers could be buying 40m cars a year, twice the number likely to be bought by Americans.任何人都无法不注目中国的汽车废气。

随着居民争相驾车上路，弥漫在北京和重庆等城市海面的大约三分之一的污染来自内燃机。到2025年左右，中国消费者每年的汽车购买量可能会超过4000万辆，是美国人的两倍。It is a problem but also an opportunity. China is already doing what countries such as the UK are being forced to consider: it is banning heavily polluting cars from cities by auctioning the right to own vehicle number plates while allowing “new energy vehicles” such as electric cars and plug-in electric hybrids an open road.这是个问题，但也是个机遇。中国已在采行英国等国不得不思维的措施：中国于是以通过拍卖会汽车号牌所有权，禁令轻污染汽车在城市行经，同时容许电动汽车和挂电式混合动力汽车等“新能源汽车”无限制上路。

As a result, although the global electric car market is still tiny, it is most advanced in China, where 330,000 new energy vehicles were sold last year. Many of them are bought by local governments and state-owned enterprises for use as delivery vans, or in local ride-sharing schemes, thus giving China’s green carmakers a kick start.因此，尽管全球电动汽车市场的规模较小，但在中国发展的最慢，去年中国销售的新能源汽车有33万辆。其中很多由地方政府和国有企业出售，用于箱式送来货车或用作地方拼车计划，这让中国的环保汽车制造商以求跟上。These vehicles are not Teslas: many are quite basic. But they are handing China first-mover advantage in the regulation, technology and manufacturing of electric cars. While Europe’s car-makers and suppliers that specialised in diesel must now rethink, Chinese companies such as BYD and Anhui Jianghuai (JAC) occupy a sweet spot.这些汽车不是特斯拉(Tesla)：很多都十分初级。

但它们在电动汽车的监管、技术和生产方面彰显了中国先行优势。比亚迪(BYD)和安徽江淮汽车(JAC)等中国企业已占有了不利方位，而专门生产柴油汽车的欧洲汽车制造商和供应商现在必需反省。Diesel was under threat before the VW scandal: the tightening of European emissions standards will make it much more expensive for carmakers to offer diesel cars, levelling the price gap with electric vehicles. AlixPartners, the consultancy, expects diesel cars to account for only 9 per cent of European sales by 2030, compared with 56 per cent five years ago.在大众汽车丑闻之前，柴油汽车面对危险性：欧洲废气标准的放宽将大大提高汽车制造商生产柴油汽车的成本，这将拉平与电动汽车的价格差距。

咨询公司艾睿铂(AlixPartners)预计，到2030年，柴油汽车将仅有占欧洲汽车销量的9%，5年前为56%。The limited range of electric cars, and lack of convenient recharging stations, has until now put off most buyers. Plug-in hybrids, such as the Chevrolet Volt and BMW 330e, make up for that by having two engines — one combustion and one electric. But this requires a lot of costly components from sophisticated European and US suppliers, such as Robert Bosch and Delphi.到目前为止，电动汽车车型受限以及缺少便捷的电池设施让多数购买者望而却步。为了填补这点，挂电式混合动力汽车（例如雪佛兰伏特(Chevrolet Volt) 和宝马(BMW)的330e）配有了两个引擎（一个是内燃机，一个是电动发动机）。

但这必须很多便宜的来自欧美高级供应商的零配件，例如罗伯特.博世(Robert Bosch)和德尔福(Delphi)。Pure electric vehicles are simpler and do not need the same array of components. Battery advances mean that they should be able to drive up to 600km on one charge by 2020, the range VW promises for its proposed ID car. They would then be more appealing.显电动汽车更加非常简单，不必须某种程度多的零配件。电池技术的变革意味著到2020年，电动汽车一次电池可行经最低600公里，这是大众汽车为其ID电动概念车允诺的目标。到那时，电动汽车就极具吸引力了。

This provides the opportunity for China to leapfrog US and western technology in the same way that some developing countries adopted mobile smartphones before fixed networks were built. The Chinese government knows it: the five-year plan unveiled in April heavily endorses green technology.这为中国打破美国和西方技术获取了机会，就像一些发展中国家在固话网络竣工前冲刺到移动智能手机一样。中国政府明白这点：4月发布的5年规划大力支持环保技术。China has an industrial stake in electric vehicles. While international carmakers tend to buy batteries produced by Japanese and South Korean companies, Chinese companies use Chinese suppliers including BYD and Amperex Technology. China’s lack of top-tier suppliers for combustion engines components matters less in electric.电动汽车对于中国工业具有最重要意义。

国际汽车制造商往往不会出售由日本和韩国公司生产的电池，中国企业则用于还包括比亚迪和新能源科技(Amperex Technology)在内的中国供应商的产品。中国在内燃机零配件方面没一线供应商，但这在电动汽车领域不那么最重要。

The VW scandal does not eliminate every advantage of European manufacturers and suppliers. A simple form of hybrid engine involving more powerful electronics is one alternative to diesel: UBS, the investment bank, estimates that 48-volt mild hybrid technology will be a EURO4bn market by 2020.大众汽车尾气废气丑闻没几乎避免欧洲制造商和供应商的优势。用于更加强劲电路的非常简单形式的混合动力发动机是一种代替柴油的自由选择：投行瑞银(UBS)估算，到2020年，48伏微混合电动技术市场的规模将超过40亿欧元。Nor will China’s carmakers have it all their own way at home. About 95 per cent of electric cars sold in China last year were made by Chinese companies, according to Automotive Foresight Shanghai, a consultancy. As carmakers such as VW and Nissan focus more heavily on China, that is bound to fall. VW is planning an electric vehicle joint venture with JAC. 中国汽车制造商将无法在国内自得其乐。上海咨询公司Automotive Foresight称之为，去年，在中国销售的电动汽车中，约95%由中国企业生产。

随着大众和日产(Nissan)等汽车制造商增大对中国的注目，这个数字认同不会下降。大众汽车于是以计划与江淮汽车重新组建一家电动汽车合资公司。

But China has plenty of levers to pull. Just as Europe’s dominance in diesel emerged from tight regulation of carbon emissions, China can lead the global electric vehicle market through force majeure. Its city-based experiments with electric transport have been a mixed bag but it will keep trying.然而，中国有很多筹码。正如欧洲在柴油领域的主导地位来自于对碳排放的严苛监管，中国可以通过强迫引导全球电动汽车市场。中国以城市为基础的电动汽车交通尝试仍然优劣惊心动魄，但中国将之后希望。

The danger for VW and other Europeans is of becoming stuck in the past, over-invested in diesel when the future is electric. Mr Ptsch’s earlier behaviour is not really the difficulty.大众汽车和其他欧洲汽车厂商的危险性在于，在未来方向是电动汽车之际，它们沉迷于过去，在柴油领域投资过度。大众汽车监事会主席波什之前的不道德实质上并非难题。

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